How much?

Good morning , i hope all you may have a good Sunday...

i will like to comment today on some questions i've received from some guys and worth an answer.

First , the comment of Albert that wrote:

"now i have a possible subject for your blog:
What do you do when you are almost 100% certain about the outcome of a match but the market offers around 1,35 - 1,6. to which degree would you follow your instict and how much would you bet relative to your net worth asuming the depth in the market is there to not lower the odds substantially. /albert"

Well , Albert , i have given a short answer to your question. But i will extend it a bit. My opinion is that bettor must have a certain plan the same way that an investor has. I'm a very big fan of Flat Staking or a variation of it the double flat staking method which has some basic rules:

1. A bet is worth to be taken or not
2. If a bet worth taken then it worths the same money and is equal with other bets
3. In some special conditions , we may do give a double stake to a bet but mathematically speaking this comes closer to this 90-100% certainly of expecting an outcome.
4. The only sure think in life is death so the only think that i can be 100% sure is my death and nothing else.

I believe in general terms that the punter is aware of just a few of the hundreds of variables that could lead a team to a result. E.g. we may have some good preview on match , may know some factors as the referee trend , stats , form , etc... but there are dozen more variables that we don't know. For example , if a player was rejected sex by his wife and he is a bit down in phsychology , if some players wish to send the coach away (this is a long process of usually 3-4 matches that conclude to a 1-4 or 1-5 loss at home) and many many more. Theoritically speaking , all those variables together are added in order to create a percentage of estimation always on our mind.

As i know that i have only one fraction of those variables available i know that is impossible to reach a 90 or 100% on my estimation for an outcome. Ok, there are some exceptions. But always and as i told you some unknown variables could easily lead a "fixed" match in the opposite outcome.

So , my opinion is that having the arsenal of information that i do have i give a GO or NO GO situation to an outcome and i take this bet on a flat stake. When my confidence is significally higher i may take a double stake but this is all. This is my own approach , wrong or right , this is where i have been lead after some years.


This is a question Mike. Concerns more Greek readers but at the end of the case is still applied to everybody.

"More than 50 or 60 people now say they have been with George Paraskevas on his old site. In reality how many people have been there?"

Well, let's say that in your early twenties you have used to go in the gym , you had money , good looks and a nice car. You have been the king of the ladies. Now in your forties you have no money , no nice car , and you are 20+ kilos and women avoid you like rotten fish.

I'm really tired with this. Some people that trying to cash on a job they had 5 or 10 yrs ago. So you may have been with George Paraskevas 2, 5 , 8 or 10 yrs ago , in the best betting website of the world then but this is the past. And in betting what you have been doing 2 ,3 or 10 years ago has nothing to do with what you are right now. Some people , just use this strange argument in order to sell themselves now but in reality those that do follow this tactic just try to hide their fall and deterioration.

It seems funny nowdays , this argument sounds like some guys that show you a girl and say "i was with her 10 years ago" OR "i was a big player" , so what? if you have been a good player on the past that means you are still today?

In my eyes this is just a pure , un-ethical and dirty way of exploiting a dead man's memory for their own profit and shows clearly how rotten the market and those people are in Greece. On the other side it shows that this man even after his loss is still infuences people and that shows how great he was on this.

Let the man REST IN PEACE!!! Please...

Good Afternoon