EBI-GROUP Headline Animator

EBI-GROUP

Friday 25 July 2008

Safe-heaven or Safe-Hell?

Hello,

i will quote one phrase from a returning member of our service in order to build my post for today:

"Hello Guys ,
i have enrolled to www.xxxxx-xxxx.com service after your bad run in the begining of the year. Now i'm on huge problem , the service have collapsed lately and actually i've lost the good run of EBIG but also i'm -50 units down from them. What you advice ? how i may recover my losses?
Rgs, XXXXXX"

The post has nothing to do with the classic "i'm better than the others" , it has to do with the collapses that many times services do face. And when the experience of people managing those services is not that big , then a collapse could turn from a minor or normal miss(at the end of the day we don't have contract with profit) to a big collapse that actually destroys the whole bank of the punter.

The title of the post could be easily "Why tipping services do fail?" but this ain't the reality as some services do fail but other manage to comeback and give more than before passing those nasty experiences.

I believe we have to split tipping services into two different categories.

A. Person based services
B. Team based services

Even we have always exceptions that verify the rule, services based into a single person are by far the most dangerous IMO. One person , even if it is super good has always to face bad runs. And that happens usually in services based on horses that many times are one-man shows. I've seen recently many examples of Laying-Something.com services that after big wins have just collapsed , and when i mean collapsed , i mean losing profits of months for old members or losing big for new ones. Laying is a trendy material in our days but as most of those services do lay horses and do lay them in prices higher than 5.0 , 6.0 or even 10.00 the damage done by 5 or 6 misses are huge. As the competition is large on this field , especially in the UK , the tipster tries to run and return from the hell but most of the times it gets burned and with him , his members.
The same happens for one-person classic football , sports services. One person can't win always so for various reasons and not always due to bad luck or just coincidence a service could easily collapse.

The second type of tipping service, the one with more people looks the safest but sometimes could be also a big trap. The theory of volume(i will describe it in a latter post) says that is better to have on your books many good punters than a very good punters. Many good punters with a ROI around 10% is virtually impossible to have all toghether a bad spell or bad run. That allows you to bet large volumes and even without a 20% or 30% ROI to bank good money as quantity-wise there is always plus on amounts and sometimes bigger plus.As i said before , there is always a danger of a combined loss or many team members and then the loss is always bigger in amounts.

The question is how we can avoid those bad patches , services , etc. Personally , not being a horse lover but also not being a lay lover i haven't ever used racing services. On the other side i have closely studied other football betting services. In the vast majority of cases and when a really bad spell appeared we had two outcomes. The service recorded a huge profit and dissapeared or the service have changed owner and reappeared. I don't talk about a situational one month bad spell , i mean about a really nasty spell of 2 or 3 months in minuses.

In reality there isn't any answer , on the other side , there are signs of panic betting from a tipster. And panic betting leads to even higher losses in the majority of times. How we find out a panic betting attempt?

1. When you follow a tipster that gives a normal amount of bets(e.g 50-60 per month) and on his bad months you see 100-120 that shows exactly a first sign of panic or an attempt to catch up with loss.
2. A tipster that usually has previews or analysis and starts to cut those previews to just one paragraph or no previews at all from one page previews. That also gives us a sign that something has changed.
3. Tipsters with no analysis you are just out on the blue. I heard situations that succefull services changed owners , nobody was informed and the results were purely chaotic.
4. Dramatic increase on stakes. Another classic example of a service near to collapse. When you see a loser to raise stakes it shouts "Jump off the train or cry"

Many more do exist , but those four are surely most important concerning avoidance of bad patches or near-collapsing services. My personal opinion is that the most dangerous of all are single-person , no analysis services. Those look like a lottery as we don't know when , how and why those tips go online but we also don't know when a tipster changes or shuts his job down by transfering his website. As i said some could be succefull but always the exception verifies the rule.

Have a nice weekend...

Monday 21 July 2008

The purity of profit...

Hello ,

i have returned from vacation , now Galata is going on his 2nd!!! summer holiday... What to say , some people are just lucky. I know that many of you also going to some nice place and i wish you all to have fun. FYI , Galata goes to Tinos Island , another very beatifull island of Kyklades.

Anyway , for us here at home there is normal life so i will comment on a subject concerning services and the reality of the results they show. This is a reply for members that ask me in a daily basis for services we do recommend.

Having studied some verification services and the way they operate i could say that some flaws exist and should be stated. In order to look good on those sites you may do just two simple things:

1. Open the site and start posting many many bets daily (i will explain that latter)
2. The bets verified to odds but what about limits?

I have seen verified tips from MMA fighting with 2 euro limit available in just 1-2 sportbooks , combos that can be played in 2-3 sportbooks with joke limits and some bets in Hockey (some exotic euro league) where the limit could reach 10 euros before the bet is locked!!! I will not say that this is a mistake of verification services , not at all , they do their job in a very proffesional way and they are obliged to accept bets like those as not all punters that join services play hundreds or thousands of euros. On the other side , those bets that are actually Unplayable do count in results of tipping services. And those results usually do make difference as they are some hockey draws , some big combo winners or an outsider in Karate that wins. And those results do make a service look good in numbers but in reality the purity of those profits and the real ROI% is far smaller than the actual one making difference on our pockets and bank accounts.

The second has to do with formulas. Sports-Tipsters is an excellent site in terms of information and i'm a big fan of the book published by Joe , if you haven't read that you should do , is a must read. On the other side , i believe there is a flaw on the formula that calculates the performance of tipsters. I'm personally again the logic of Robustness that is :

"The "robustnesss" of a betting record is a consequence of both yield (or rather strike rate) and bet number. A record may have a good yield, but if it is based on only a few bets, a punter cannot be confident that it really reflects the tipster's skill. On the other hand, a record of 250 bets and only a 5% yield can be considered to be more robust because the tipster's ability has been tested over and over again. "

My opinion is that many times this could be a negative instead of positive stat to count. I give you one very simple example on how you may cheat easily against this criteria. Let's say you open a service and every day you give 10 tips. Tennis , football , basket , etc... Every month you should have 300 bets , after 3 months you should have 900 bets and very easily somebody with 900 - 1000 bets into 3 months time could be considered as Robust. But is really a robust service?

I personally have a different opinion. Numbers don't lie for sure though i think some other ingredients should be calculated concerning Robustness. Those are :

Recovery after bad streaks and Period of time online. Number of bets are certainly important but in my opinion a service that is online 2 or 3 years shows robustness instead of a service online 3 or 5 months. Also how the service reacts on bad runs? Did the service managed to return the loss and re-create profit ? Did the service collapsed? There are some good examples of Super-Services charging thousand of dollars per month that just collapsed after a bad month.

Is the price and the bet achievable? That couldn't be counted as everybody has a different volume of money per bet. But what is the value of a service when you can achieve only a % of the adviced odds or you can't achieve it at all?

Those two are the key areas you must consider along with the previous results as always. And this is what i consider purity of profit or robustness.

Hope you all have good additional selections...






Wednesday 16 July 2008

The Originals

Hi,

back to work in fullspeed and even if betting doesn't stop we do prepare for the full season that follows summer. As i wrote many times , we consider the Group as a living organism , the management of the group remains the same for 20 months but as it is normal we have people that participate in the group and those change.

On the other side , i do consider and see our early days partners on a different way as some of them have played important part that lead us to be one of the most respected services of the market.

One of the Originals of EBI-GROUP is Bet-Manavis that stayed with us from the begining and since January of 2008. Then he decided to take a break and start his own freelance bussiness , now he is back and again a full member of the team.

We wish him good luck on his new spell at EBI-GROUP

Miltiades / Galata

Tuesday 15 July 2008

Vacation to Paros Island


Hello,

it was much needed and finally happened. I was out for a five days vacation in the island of Paros. Born myself in another island , i'm too sceptic when i take the boat to other islands. A bit of an alien feeling this one. Though i must say that Paros is a beautifull island but most important of all i did understood why so many people like Kyklades and those tiny islands for their vacation.

Most of us work and live in large cities like Athens , Madrid , Rome , etc... To drive from place A to B seems like a tale from Hercules. Big traffic jams , hours of driving and much stress. Paros as most of the islands of Kyklades are small , from A to B you need maximum thirty minutes drive, the beach is 2-3 minutes walk , everything is within reach. When in a large city we are able to work and drive back , in Paros you may do many more and still have time in hand...

This is what i consider quality of life...

Some tips for those planning to visit...

Avoid Naoussa , too crowdy and expensive... Paroikia is quiet , cheap and just 20 minutes by car to Naoussa where the nightlife takes place.

Have your dinner at Glafkos in Naoussa, super food!!!

Take your laptop and use Municipalitie's of Paros Wifi Free Internet Access to check the analysis by EBI-GROUP

Don't take your laptop:)

Instead of a car hire a gourouna bike!!!

If you have been in Paros or you don't plan to go there , then go to Chios , its much better and you may meet by accident some tipster of EBI-GROUP!!!

Places to be...

















Santa Maria















Kolymbithres















Golden Beach












Krios

As you see there are many but also more to places to visit. Highly recommended!!!

Thursday 10 July 2008

Talking about legends...

Goodmorning,

Many people say that Greece taking Euro 2004 was a massive upset. Yes it was... though in my memories always stay this mythical European Championship of 1987 , a cup that every summer comes into my memory. Maybe because the opponent was a monster like USSR , let's say it was a David vs Goliath thing...

I'm not a fan of basketball , i really get bored watching matches as the creativity is certainly smaller than this of football. On the other side , some basketball players was just a bless to watch. In the European Championship of 1987 two legends of the sport in Europe had put their signature. The mythical Nick Gallis , a guy that many said that defeated gravity and Drazen Petrovic , one big talent that died some years later on a car accident... Both have been artists of the sport and maybe in NBA some players are also myths but is really different to take a whole country on your back and move it to a better tomorrow... Enjoy...



The final. 40 points scored against USSR. Cops do also cheer sometimes:)



Drajen...



The final points...

Monday 7 July 2008

Livebetting , tool or catastrophy?

Hello,

some problems with our web hosting(i will write about it in a latter time) kept me out from blogging though still there is small time left.

Today the subject is Livebetting or In-Running as it is called in Asia. For some a tool for others a sentence. I was with a master agent of a big Asian sportbook last weekend and we had a talk on how asians see this product as they call it...

The guy have amazed me when he told me that after the opening of Asia Markets to European livebetting was the life-line that most sportbooks needed to stay on market. Pointbet , a well known sportbook for many years and the first opened to Europeans have bankrupted as they have failed to offer livebetting to customers.

The reason is very simple for the master agent. Livebetting keeps the punter on his PC and online for many hours. Some of his customers are 18-20 hours online in order to bet events from 2nd division of Chile to Portuguese u19 games. And there is the where the sportbook takes the situation in hand. When somebody that usually puts his money on one or two events could easily bet on live at 30 , 40 even 60 events daily. Events that has no idea what is the color or the condition of the teams that he bets by just opening a page with results and statistics(if those exist) and place bets.

This is sportbook paradise , the vig is always in his favour and the lack of information makes it even easier. So instead of slowly eating those 2-5% vigs now they have a Thanks Giving dinner daily from those punters that feel the rush so sooner or later the credit is crunched.

This is the sportbook view of the subject. Say it something like a supermarket logic. You go to supermarket to buy a watermellon , and you end up buying a plastic doll , condoms , the cashier and the store manager:)

As we speak , i see that now IBC offers the super prestigious event of "Ireland Munster Senior Cup" for livebetting where Munster Cup is :

"The Munster Senior Cup is a provincial soccer tournament played among senior soccer clubs from Munster in the Republic of Ireland. The competition is run by the Munster Football Association, which is affiliated to the Football Association of Ireland."

Let's see a proffesional punter's view on the matter.

My friend , have virtually stopped betting pre-live odds(except some serious info and some under totals) and now he is totally focused on livebetting. His method haven't changed at all and he is simply bying better prices on live market or sometimes covers some of his bets to ensure capital.

He also told me that in minor tournaments catches the plane or the car and visit the stadium placing bets inside the ground. And that is his biggest profit maker for sometime as the live odds operator could easily make a mistake and somebody with information and news of the last minute could easily give him the edge.

He also talked to me about his early live-betting days. When he lost nearly 30.000 euros in just one evening having himself catched-up by the adrenaline rush and the big number of games in livemarket.

So, Tool or Catastrophy? As one of my Proffesors once told me in the University , you may buy a bike and make your life easier but you also can go and kill yourself with it. Simply , there are two sides on the coin , we can always choose the one the one that favours us...

Have a nice midweek...

Thursday 3 July 2008

Libertadores 2008 Final

Another great match , another great comeback from Fluminense, 2nd time as the first was against Boca but finally the Cup goes to LDU. I believe it was well worth as the 4-2 of first game was a magic image and Liga have lost incredible chances to sentence it.



The highlight of the evening is the way that goalkeeper of Liga managed to make it even more difficult for Fluminense players.


Wednesday 2 July 2008

Show me a recovered punter and i will show you a good punter

Hello,

we had some days to write a post though the problems with the operation of the website just took too long and gave us a strong slap on the face and consumed most of our time.

This post i wish to dedicate to one person that is with us for sometime , a person behind the scenes but as much(if not more) valuable member of the Group. Proffesor Sergei have started with us longtime ago and his role is mainly to manage the vip section of the website but also cool up thinks in very good or very bad times. He is actually the person that evaluates the statistic character of every single tip. And when i talk about statistics , i talk about serious numbers , serious calculations , power ratings and generally stuff that only some well educated people like Sergino possess.

We wish to thank you all Proffesor...

I opened my post about Sergei as he told me yesterday something that amazed me. I wasn't in the best mood as this month was on plus but not on the levels we all wished to have. To go from +130 and +120 to +35 ain't the best , though Sergei told me that this was maybe better month than a +100 month.

And the reason was that we have managed to recover from negatives for three times and instead of letting it go we have manage to turn it in plus. "Show me a recovered punter and i will show you a winning punter" he said...

How much right he is. And how difficult it is to escape three losing series within one month. I guess you may project a similar situation on your betting career. Think about it...

Don't forget to have a look on our newest Copa Libertadores Finals album. I have cheated there as i have also included one of the goals i always like to see. The amazing foul shot of Rene Higuita against River Plate...

Have a nice evening.


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