Safe-heaven or Safe-Hell?

Hello,

i will quote one phrase from a returning member of our service in order to build my post for today:

"Hello Guys ,
i have enrolled to www.xxxxx-xxxx.com service after your bad run in the begining of the year. Now i'm on huge problem , the service have collapsed lately and actually i've lost the good run of EBIG but also i'm -50 units down from them. What you advice ? how i may recover my losses?
Rgs, XXXXXX"

The post has nothing to do with the classic "i'm better than the others" , it has to do with the collapses that many times services do face. And when the experience of people managing those services is not that big , then a collapse could turn from a minor or normal miss(at the end of the day we don't have contract with profit) to a big collapse that actually destroys the whole bank of the punter.

The title of the post could be easily "Why tipping services do fail?" but this ain't the reality as some services do fail but other manage to comeback and give more than before passing those nasty experiences.

I believe we have to split tipping services into two different categories.

A. Person based services
B. Team based services

Even we have always exceptions that verify the rule, services based into a single person are by far the most dangerous IMO. One person , even if it is super good has always to face bad runs. And that happens usually in services based on horses that many times are one-man shows. I've seen recently many examples of Laying-Something.com services that after big wins have just collapsed , and when i mean collapsed , i mean losing profits of months for old members or losing big for new ones. Laying is a trendy material in our days but as most of those services do lay horses and do lay them in prices higher than 5.0 , 6.0 or even 10.00 the damage done by 5 or 6 misses are huge. As the competition is large on this field , especially in the UK , the tipster tries to run and return from the hell but most of the times it gets burned and with him , his members.
The same happens for one-person classic football , sports services. One person can't win always so for various reasons and not always due to bad luck or just coincidence a service could easily collapse.

The second type of tipping service, the one with more people looks the safest but sometimes could be also a big trap. The theory of volume(i will describe it in a latter post) says that is better to have on your books many good punters than a very good punters. Many good punters with a ROI around 10% is virtually impossible to have all toghether a bad spell or bad run. That allows you to bet large volumes and even without a 20% or 30% ROI to bank good money as quantity-wise there is always plus on amounts and sometimes bigger plus.As i said before , there is always a danger of a combined loss or many team members and then the loss is always bigger in amounts.

The question is how we can avoid those bad patches , services , etc. Personally , not being a horse lover but also not being a lay lover i haven't ever used racing services. On the other side i have closely studied other football betting services. In the vast majority of cases and when a really bad spell appeared we had two outcomes. The service recorded a huge profit and dissapeared or the service have changed owner and reappeared. I don't talk about a situational one month bad spell , i mean about a really nasty spell of 2 or 3 months in minuses.

In reality there isn't any answer , on the other side , there are signs of panic betting from a tipster. And panic betting leads to even higher losses in the majority of times. How we find out a panic betting attempt?

1. When you follow a tipster that gives a normal amount of bets(e.g 50-60 per month) and on his bad months you see 100-120 that shows exactly a first sign of panic or an attempt to catch up with loss.
2. A tipster that usually has previews or analysis and starts to cut those previews to just one paragraph or no previews at all from one page previews. That also gives us a sign that something has changed.
3. Tipsters with no analysis you are just out on the blue. I heard situations that succefull services changed owners , nobody was informed and the results were purely chaotic.
4. Dramatic increase on stakes. Another classic example of a service near to collapse. When you see a loser to raise stakes it shouts "Jump off the train or cry"

Many more do exist , but those four are surely most important concerning avoidance of bad patches or near-collapsing services. My personal opinion is that the most dangerous of all are single-person , no analysis services. Those look like a lottery as we don't know when , how and why those tips go online but we also don't know when a tipster changes or shuts his job down by transfering his website. As i said some could be succefull but always the exception verifies the rule.

Have a nice weekend...